USD/CHF, NZD/CHF Eye Key Levels

Swiss Franc Technical Forecast – Talking Points

Further USD/CHF downside likely with confluent pressure overhead
Swiss Franc trading at multi-month high after November rally
Short-term NZD/CHF momentum may be slowing, upside still favored

USD/CHF Price Analysis

The Swiss Franc appears set to continue its bullish run against the US Dollar following USD/CHF establishing a new yearly low earlier this month. The 100-day simple moving average along with trendline resistance and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the September swing have contained price action to the upside.

Currently, USD/CHF is trading at the 38.2% Fib level and with the 50-day simple moving average trending sideways, a short-term break higher may play out. However, the prior area of confluent resistance will likely contain any rally and set the stage for downside continuation. That said, the longer-term trend appears poised for lower lows and any movement to the upside will come under strong pressure.

USD/CHF Daily Chart

Chart created with TradingView

NZD/CHF Price Analysis

NZD/CHF rallied to make a new multi-month high over the past two weeks. The June high at 0.6298 will offer the nearest term support on any pullback, but a break lower would allow a drop to the July high before November’s rally is threatened. In the event of continuation higher NZD/CHF will eye January’s price levels.

Nevertheless, MACD divergence is weakening, which may signal consolidation before another attempt higher. Still, NZD/CHF seems well-positioned, with the overall trend supporting higher ground. A break under the 2020 June high would likely give way to range-bound movement in the short term.