US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis
- US Dollar testing key resistance against ASEAN currencies
- USD/SGD and USD/MYR face 20-day moving averages next
- USD/PHP downtrend remains intact, USD/IDR consolidating
The US Dollar has been struggling to accelerate upside momentum against ASEAN currencies as of late. On the daily chart below is my ASEAN-based US Dollar index which averages USD against SGD, MYR, IDR and PHP. After a break above near term falling resistance, the index is stuck just under the key 4.1223 – 4.1318 inflection range. A push above this barrier could open the door to broader strength in the US Dollar. Immediate support sits below at 4.1013 which if taken out, could precede a drop to current June lows.
ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index – Daily Chart
ASEAN-Based USD Index Chart Created in TradingView
*My ASEAN-Based USD Index Averages USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR
Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook
The Singapore Dollar is testing the 20-day simple moving average on the daily chart below. This follows a bounce off support (1.3760 – 1.3805) that has since seen USD/SGD idle as resistance was established around 1.3993. A push above the moving average could be a near term bullish signal that perhaps paves the way for a test of falling resistance from March – red line. Taking this trend line out could open the door to a broader reversal in the Singapore Dollar. Otherwise, downtrend resumption entails taking out 1.3760 – 1.3805.
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USD/SGD Daily Chart
USD/SGD Chart Created in TradingView
Malaysian Ringgit Technical Outlook
The Malaysian Ringgit is also facing a similar scenario as the Singapore Dollar. On the daily chart below, USD/MYR is pressuring the 20-day simple moving average as prices also test resistance at 4.2780. The latter has been holding up so far this month, keeping the pair at bay. A push above the moving average could open the door to testing falling resistance from March – red line. Downtrend resumption entails taking out key support, a range between 4.2350 – 4.2450.
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USD/MYR Daily Chart
USD/MYR Chart Created in TradingView
Philippine Peso Technical Outlook
USD/PHP remains in a downtrend since prices topped in March. Guiding strength in the Philippine Peso is falling resistance – red lines on the daily chart below. Taking out immediate support at 50 could open the door to testing the current June low at 49.73. The latter also aligns with the 2018 trough. This price needs to be taken out in order to open the door for downtrend resumption as the pair sets lower lows and lower highs. Otherwise, a push above falling resistance opens the door to testing the 50.38 – 50.52 inflection range.
USD/PHP Daily Chart
USD/PHP Chart Created in TradingView
Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook
The Indonesian Rupiah continues to consolidate against the US Dollar, with USD/IDR thus far adhering to falling resistance from April – red line. Keep an eye on rising support – blue line – in the event sellers take on the offensive. If the pair pushes above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement, that could open the door to retesting May 2019 highs (14484 – 14525). Do keep in mind however that the Bank of Indonesia could step in to stem deeper selling pressure in IDR.
USD/IDR Daily Chart
USD/IDR Chart Created in TradingView
— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter