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Home Technical Analysis

S&P 500, FTSE 100, GBP/JPY Forecasts: Retail Trader Positioning Signals

Forex Tips by Forex Tips
September 2, 2020
in Technical Analysis
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S&P 500 Rallies as Key Insiders Dump Stock, Traders Add Shorts
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S&P 500, FTSE 100, GBP/JPY Trader Positioning – Talking Points

  • IG Client Sentiment hints S&P 500 could rise
  • FTSE 100 outlook pointing bearish however
  • GBP/JPY may turn lower after Shooting Star

In this week’s session on IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), I discussed the outlook for the S&P 500, FTSE 100 GBPJPY. At its heart, IGCS is a contrarian indicator. For a deeper dive into what this means and for fundamental analysis, check out the recording of the session above. In the recording, I also covered gold and silver prices shortly after the 29-minute mark.

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S&P 500 Sentiment Outlook – Bullish

The IGCS gauge implies that about 24% of retail investors are net long the S&P 500. Exposure to the downside has increased by about 3% over a daily and weekly basis. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias.

S&P 500, FTSE 100, GBP/JPY Forecasts: Retail Trader Positioning Signals

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

S&P 500 futures extended gains beyond the all-time high in February. Prices are being guided higher by key rising support from March – red lines. From here, the index may target the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 3577 having confirmed a breakout above the midpoint at 3452.

Equities Forecast

Equities Forecast

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What is the outlook for equities this quarter?

S&P 500 Futures – Daily Chart

S&P 500, FTSE 100, GBP/JPY Forecasts: Retail Trader Positioning Signals

S&P 500 Chart Created in Trading View

FTSE 100 Sentiment Outlook – Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 84% of retail traders are net long the FTSE 100. Net long bets have increased by 12.62% and 26.93% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bearish contrarian trading bias.

Develop the discipline and objectivity you need to improve your approach to trading consistently

S&P 500, FTSE 100, GBP/JPY Forecasts: Retail Trader Positioning Signals

FTSE 100 Technical Analysis

The FTSE 100 has closed at its lowest since May 18, however prices were unable to break under the August 3 low at 5857. Positive RSI divergence warns that downside momentum is fading and that can at times precede a turn higher. Otherwise, further losses expose the May low at 5661.

Follow me on Twitter @ddubrovskyFX for updates on price trends and retail positioning!

FTSE 100 – Daily Chart

S&P 500, FTSE 100, GBP/JPY Forecasts: Retail Trader Positioning Signals

FTSE 100 Chart Created in Trading View

GBP/JPY Sentiment Outlook – Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 47% of retail investors are net long GBP/JPY. Downside exposure has declined by 1.71% and 42.83% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net short.

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading

How to Use IG Client Sentiment in Your Trading

Recommended by Daniel Dubrovsky

Learn more about how IGCS is a contrarian indicator

S&P 500, FTSE 100, GBP/JPY Forecasts: Retail Trader Positioning Signals

GBP/JPY Technical Analysis

GBP/JPY has left behind a Shooting Star candlestick pattern, a sign of indecision. A downside close from here could open the door to a reversal as upside momentum fades. That would place the focus on the 140.83 – 141.16 inflection zone on the way towards rising support from late June.

GBP/JPY – Daily Chart

S&P 500, FTSE 100, GBP/JPY Forecasts: Retail Trader Positioning Signals

GBP/JPY Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from September 2nd Report

— Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter





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