Gold Technical Price Outlook: XAU/USD Weekly Trade Levels
Gold prices are virtually unchanged on the week despite a 4.7% trading range. The move keeps price in consolidation just below the record highs and the risk remains for a deeper setback near-term while below technical resistance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the gold weekly charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this XAU/USD trade setup and more.
Gold Price Chart – XAU/USD Weekly
Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; Gold on Tradingview
Notes: In last month’s Gold Weekly PriceOutlook we noted that the, “The gold breakout is underway with the rally now approaching initial topside resistance objectives,” at 1983 and 200% extension of the 2015 multi-year range-break at 2033. Gold registered an intra-week high at 2075 early in the month before reversing sharply with the high-week close further highlighting the region at 2035.
Note that weekly momentum has now broken back below the 70-threshold and highlights the risk for a deeper pullback while below 2033/35.
Weekly support steady at the 2011 high close / high-week close at 1898-1909 and a weekly close below this zone is needed to suggest a more significant correction is underway towards the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the yearly range at 1836 and the 2012 swing high at 1795– both zones of interest for possible downside exhaustion IF reached.
Recommended by Michael Boutros
Download our latest quarterly Gold Price Forecast
Bottom line: The gold breakout remains vulnerable on the back of this stretch – from a trading standpoint, be on the lookout for downside exhaustion while above 1795 IF price is indeed heading higher with a topside breach above 2033 needed to mark resumption – subsequent topside resistance objective at 2105 and 2179. Review my latest Gold Price Outlook for a closer look at the near-term XAU/USD technical trading levels.
For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy
Gold Trader Sentiment – XAU/USD Price Chart
- A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long Gold- the ratio stands at +3.63 (78.40% of traders are long) – bearishreading
- Long positions are2.48% higher than yesterday and 11.62% higher from last week
- Short positions are4.76% lower than yesterday and 1.74% higher from last week
- We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Gold prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a stronger Gold-bearish contrarian trading biasfrom a sentiment standpoint.
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Previous Weekly Technical Charts
– Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
Follow Michael on Twitter @MBForex