Canadian Dollar Outlook: USD/CAD Breakdown Stalls

Canadian Dollar Technical Price Outlook: Near-term Trade Levels

Canadian Dollar updated technical trade levels – Daily & Intraday Charts
USD/CAD multi-week sell-off vulnerable off downtrend support
Resistance 1.3162, bearish invalidation 1.3222 – critical support 1.3046/56

The Canadian Dollar is fractionally softer against the US Dollar since the start of the week with USD/CAD setting a well-defined weekly opening range at fresh monthly lows. The recent sell-off is showing signs of exhaustion however and while the outlook remains tilted to the downside, the immediate decline may be vulnerable near-term. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/CAD price charts. Review my latest Strategy Webinarfor an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD Daily

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

Technical Outlook: In my last Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that USD/CAD was, “testing a key inflection zone at confluence uptrend support. . . Be on the lookout for topside exhaustion ahead of 1.3316 on rallies IF price is indeed heading lower.” The zone in focus was 1.3256 – a region defined by channel support and the 38.2% retracement of the September rally. A recovery off this threshold early in the month briefly registered a high at 1.3340 before reversing sharply lower.

A four-day decline has stalled at fresh monthly lows with price threatening an outside-day reversal today in New York. Daily resistance stands at 1.3156 backed by 1.3256– bearish invalidation now lowered to the monthly open at 1.3316. Key daily support remains with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the 2017 rally at 1.3056– look for a more significant reaction there IF reached.

Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 120min

Notes: A closer look at Loonie price action shows USD/CAD trading within the confines a descending pitchfork formation with the recent sell-off responding to the lower parallel early in the week. A clean weekly opening-range is being tested today with the immediate focus on a break of the 1.3085-1.3162 range for guidance.

A topside breach / close above the 1.3156/62 resistance zone exposes 1.3206 backed by 1.3222– both regions of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Initial support at 1.3085 backed by critical support at the September open / 161.8% ext / 61.8% retracement at 1.3046/56– a break / close below this threshold would be needed to fuel the next leg lower in price towards the yearly open at 1.2975.

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Bottom line: USD/CAD is now testing near-term downtrend support with a weekly opening-range taking shape just above the lower parallel. From a trading standpoint, look for topside exhaustion ahead of 1.3221 on recoveries IF price is indeed heading lower with critical support steady at 1.3046/56. Ultimately, we’re looking for basing this week with a breach above this formation needed to shift the focus higher again in the US Dollar. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trade levels.

For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

A summary of IG Client Sentiment shows traders are net-long USD/CAD – the ratio stands at +2.82 (73.85% of traders are long) – bearish reading
Long positions are4.06% higher than yesterday and 12.25% higher from last week
Short positions are 25.20% higher than yesterday and 23.92% lower from last week
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.